MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers – 2 Units
Matchup: Cubs @ Brewers
Pitching: Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs Matthew Boyd (CHC)
Play: Brewers ML (–150 range)
Units: 2
Breakdown
Milwaukee returns home in form and draws a perfect matchup to keep momentum rolling. Freddy Peralta has been lights-out in divisional spots, holding Cubs hitters under .160 BA across recent meetings and posting a 30%+ K-rate over his last six starts. His WHIP at home sits around 1.00, and he’s averaged more than 6 Ks per outing in that span.
Matthew Boyd counters for Chicago but has struggled badly versus right-handed power, allowing a .290+ BA and 1.7 HR/9. The Brewers lineup (Yelich, Contreras, Adames) profiles well against his arsenal, especially early when Boyd’s fastball command fades.
Milwaukee’s bullpen owns a top-5 ERA since the break, while Chicago’s has collapsed late in games—one of the league’s worst WHIPs in the past 30 days.