Here is my quick advice on parlays:
- Betting off the board, do not pick more than three teams or totals at -110 odds.
- On parlay cards, take advantage of stale lines on the cards by comparing them to the current odds. It is especially beneficial in football to capture a movement off of 3 points, for example a team is +2.5 on the board and +3 on the card.
Here is my quick advice on teasers:
- If you bet off the board, the best odds are at Jerry’s Nugget.
- Try to cross the 3- and 7-point margin of victories with the extra points.
- Teaser cards are a sucker bet.
- If you must bet a teaser card, I recommend the the Ties Win Teaser Card at any Caesars sports book.
- On teaser cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the “off the board” point spread.
Buying Half a Point off the Spread
Sometimes a sports book will let you buy a half point off the spread for total. For example, moving a point spread from +10 to +10.5. The price for this is laying an extra cents, in most cases laying 120 instead of 110. However, rarely will a sports book let the player buy onto point spreads of 3 or 7, for example moving from +2.5 to +3, because 3 and 7 are frequent margin of victories (MOV) in the NFL. To be specific, the margin of victory is three 14.5% of the time, and seven 9.2%, as the following table shows.
Margin of Victory in the NFL
| MOV | PROBABILITY |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% |
| 1 | 3.7% |
| 2 | 3.8% |
| 3 | 14.5% |
| 4 | 5.2% |
| 5 | 3.4% |
| 6 | 6.2% |
| 7 | 9.2% |
| 8 | 3.6% |
| 9 | 1.7% |
| 10 | 5.6% |
| 11 | 2.5% |
| 12 | 1.5% |
| 13 | 2.9% |
| 14 | 4.8% |
| 15 | 1.5% |
| 16 | 2.1% |
| 17 | 3.1% |
| 18 | 2.3% |
| 19 | 1.1% |
| 20 | 2.4% |
| 21 | 3.2% |
| 22+ | 15.7% |
| Total | 100.0% |
The following table shows the fair price to pay for most spreads and totals. For example, moving the spread from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5, -3.5 to -3, or -3 to -2.5, would be buying the 3. In these cases if the favorite won by 3, or the underdog lost by 3, then it would turn a push into a win, or a loss into a push. The table shows the fair price to pay for extra half point, to equal the expected loss of 4.54% laying 11 to win 10. The bottom line is you should definitely buy the half point off of three, if you can, and it is marginally good off of seven. Anything else and it is a bad value.
Buying a Half Point off the Over/Under in the NFL
| TOTAL POINTS | NUM. IN SAMPLE | PROBABILITY | FAIR PRICE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 89 | 0.027640 | 6.58 |
| 31 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
| 32 | 42 | 0.013043 | 3.06 |
| 33 | 102 | 0.031677 | 7.58 |
| 34 | 83 | 0.025776 | 6.13 |
| 35 | 52 | 0.016149 | 3.80 |
| 36 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
| 37 | 120 | 0.037267 | 8.98 |
| 38 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
| 39 | 62 | 0.019255 | 4.54 |
| 40 | 105 | 0.032609 | 7.81 |
| 41 | 121 | 0.037578 | 9.05 |
| 42 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
| 43 | 126 | 0.039130 | 9.45 |
| 44 | 123 | 0.038199 | 9.21 |
| 45 | 82 | 0.025466 | 6.05 |
| 46 | 64 | 0.019876 | 4.69 |
| 47 | 113 | 0.035093 | 8.43 |
| 48 | 98 | 0.030435 | 7.27 |
| 49 | 61 | 0.018944 | 4.47 |
| 50 | 81 | 0.025155 | 5.98 |
| 51 | 119 | 0.036957 | 8.90 |
| 52 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
| 53 | 51 | 0.015839 | 3.72 |
| 54 | 66 | 0.020497 | 4.84 |
| 55 | 85 | 0.026398 | 6.28 |
| 56 | 25 | 0.007764 | 1.81 |
| 57 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
| 58 | 58 | 0.018012 | 4.24 |
| 59 | 40 | 0.012422 | 2.91 |
| 60 | 18 | 0.005590 | 1.30 |
Key to column headings:
- Total Points = Total point scored in game
- Num. in Sample = Number of times this total appeared in a sample of 3,220 games.
- Fair Price = My fair number of basis points to pay to capture this number (after a lot of math)
(Source)